South Carolinians can expect an austere 2009 as job opportunities decline and the unemployment rate continues to rise, according to a report released Wednesday (Dec. 3) by University of South Carolina economists at the Moore School of Business’ 28th annual Economic Outlook Conference.

The report, compiled by economists Dr. Paulo Guimarães and Dr. Douglas P. Woodward, foresees the net loss of 22,000 jobs next year and said the unemployment rate in the state will rise to 8.6 percent. Between February and October 2008, the state’s unemployment rate went from a relatively low 5.5 percent to 8 percent, a 25-year high.

“The South Carolina data indicate that the economy is in recession, and it is unlikely that there will be improvement in the economy until at least the middle of 2009,” said Guimarães, research professor in the Moore School’s Division of Research.

Guimarães and Woodward, professor of economics at the Moore School and director of the Division of Research, presented their findings to business and government leaders who attended the EOC, sponsored by the Moore School and the Palmetto Institute.

During the past year, the construction sector in South Carolina shed 17,700 jobs, Guimarães said, and job losses in this sector are expected to continue in 2009, with a decline of 8.3 percent. Single-family housing permits are expected to be off 35.5 percent next year. This comes on the heels of a similar drop in the number of such permits in 2008.

Statewide, retail sales are projected to edge up just 0.5 percent in 2009. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s manufacturing employment is expected to retrench, with a projected job decline of 4.4 percent. The forecast predicts an 8.7 percent drop in nondurable-goods manufacturing jobs and a 6.4 percent decline in durable-goods industry employment. Other important sectors, such as government and professional/business services, also will continue to shed jobs next year, putting further pressure on the labor market, the report said.

Personal income, another broad measure of the state’s economic activity, should climb by 3.3 percent in 2009, down from 4.7 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2007.

“The ongoing surprises emanating from the financial sector make it difficult to forecast the trends in the real economy,” said Woodward. “We will not have a recovery until the financial markets clear up and lift this cloud of uncertainty shrouding business conditions.”

The day-long conference featured a panel discussion, “Perspectives on Business Conditions in 2009.” Panelists were Michael R. Brenan, president, BB&T of South Carolina; Robert M. Hitt III, department manager, public affairs, BMW Manufacturing Co.; M. Edward Sellers, chairman and CEO, BlueCross BlueShield of South Carolina; and Michael Stout, M.D., president and CEO, UCI Medical Affiliates, Inc.

Darla Moore, vice president of Rainwater Inc. and chairman of the Palmetto Institute, spoke on The need for tax reform in South Carolina. The luncheon speaker was Daniel H. Stern, founder and co-CEO of the New York hedge fund Reservoir Capital Group, who discussed the current status of the financial markets.

A copy of the report will be available online at http://mooreschool.sc.edu/moore/research.